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What?
Ok, I'm not a football fan, but I'm also not totally deaf when it comes to the news.
A couple of nights ago, famed New England Patriots coach made a decision that cost the Patriots their game.
Steve D. Levitt, of Freakonomics fame, wrote an interesting analysis of why the decision that Belichick made was a good decision, fans be damned.
As anyone in the business intelligence field can tell you, decisions can be made on hope, or on facts. You can get great or catastrophic results using either method.
Levitt puts forward some evidence that supports the game-losing move. According to Levitt, Belichick's decision showed that:
1) he understands the data, and 2) he cares more about winning than anything else.
Moral: A losing decision based on facts doesn't make it a bad decision.
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Belichick stood by his decision and it was right based on the stats, history, facts, situation...however you want to look at it. The only problem is that the fans see it differently and view it as a mistake and Belichick is seen as the one who is responsible.
The alternative option is to kick the ball to the NE offense with Manning at the helm. The ending result had the same probability outcome even if he punted the ball away.